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January 7th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:  Tanker Trouble A naval standoff is brewing in the Atlantic. A Russian sub is now escorting shadow fleet tanker Marinera (Formerly Bella 1) after it repelled a U.S. boarding attempt in late December. Moscow is demanding the Coast Guard call off its pursuit. Odds the vessel is seized by Friday are dropping, but odds of another Venezuela-linked tanker seizure this month remain significant. |
 A Gift Yesterday Trump posted that Venezuela will be handing over 30-50 million barrels of oil directly to the United States. This amounts to roughly 10% of the country's annual production. Although the odds have fallen slightly, traders expect the transfer to be formalized this month. |
Oil Production Boom? Venezuela sits on the world's largest oil reserves but pumps just 1 million barrels a day, down from 3.5 million in the 90s. How high will it go this year? Polymarket traders are forecasting a 10-30% bump in production by year-end. |
| Celonis IPO before 2027? View market → | 47%+35% |
| Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? View market → | 48%+27% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? View market → | 71%-15% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by...? | 1d |
| #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? | 1d |
| December Unemployment Rate | 1d |
| Trump approval rating on January 9? | 1d |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | 8h ago |
| What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at in January? | 9h ago |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 9h ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| Fed decision in January? | $9.02M |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | $7.83M |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? | $4.35M |
| Portugal Presidential Election | $2.58M |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner | 193d |
| Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC | 1d |
| Parma Calcio 1913 vs. FC Internazionale Milano | 8h |
| Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 7h |
| Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC - More Markets | 7h |
Whale Moves | "No" Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | $336.8K |
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| "Michigan Wolverines" Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions | $166.5K |
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| "No" Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | $140.0K |
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| "Yes" Brevis FDV above $100M one day after launch? | $139.9K |
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