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Here's How to Trade Copper Now
Late last year, we said copper demand would only accelerate — and the tape has validated the thesis.
On November 23, 2025, we cited BHP's view that global copper demand could climb sharply over the coming decades, driven by three structural forces: infrastructure buildouts, power-grid expansion, and the data-center boom tied to artificial intelligence. BHP has since reiterated that framework and projects global copper demand could rise by around 70% to more than 50 million tonnes per year by 2050.
We also highlighted copper leverage through Freeport-McMoRan (SYM: FCX) and the Global X Copper Miners ETF (SYM: COPX). Since then, both have delivered meaningful upside.
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FCX is now about $55.14
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COPX is now about $75.93
That is exactly the type of move you want to see when the fundamental story begins to translate into capital flows.
What we would do next: take partial profits, then reset for the next leg
From here, we would take some wins off the table. Not because the long-term thesis is broken — but because strong uptrends typically do not move in a straight line. After a sharp run, it's normal to see profit-taking, consolidation, and re-pricing of expectations.
This is especially true right now because copper has been pushing into fresh highs: Reuters reported copper prices surpassed $13,000 per metric ton and noted a 40% surge in 2025 as the market increasingly focuses on supply risk meeting AI and electrification demand.
When you see a commodity and its equities move that quickly, the higher-probability path is often:
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a pullback or sideways digestion phase, and then
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a renewed push higher once the market has rebuilt a base.
So the near-term play is about risk management and positioning, not abandoning the theme.
Why copper can still explode higher longer term
Even if copper cools off in the short run, the longer-term supply/demand setup remains compelling.
1) Data centers and AI are becoming a real copper demand engine
The AI buildout isn't just chips and servers — it's electricity. And electricity infrastructure is copper-intensive.
BHP estimates the copper used in data centers will grow six-fold by 2050, from roughly ~0.5 million tonnes per year today to around ~3 million tonnes per year by 2050 — an increase it compares to the combined output of the world's four largest copper mines.
That matters because it reframes "digital demand" as durable and rising — not cyclical.
2) Power grids are the bottleneck (and the investment is real)
Copper is the metal of electrification, and electrification is increasingly grid-constrained.
Reuters has highlighted that global power-grid expansion and modernization is accelerating, with record investment levels and demand rising from EVs and data centers alongside renewables integration.
In other words: even if EV sales fluctuate quarter to quarter, the grid work doesn't disappear — it tends to compound.
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3) The supply side is structurally slow
Copper supply is not "turn on a dime" supply. Mines take years to permit, finance, and build, and the industry faces long-lead constraints.
S&P Global reported the IEA warning that copper could face a supply shortage that could reach 30% by 2035, with the deficit driven by structural constraints like declining ore grades, higher capital costs, and long project timelines.
This is why copper is often described as one of the more difficult critical minerals to scale quickly.
4) The capital required is enormous
There are multiple estimates for how much new investment is needed to meet future demand. One widely cited framework is BloombergNEF's Transition Metals Outlook, which pegs trillions of dollars of new mining investment needed across energy transition metals by 2050.
Separately, some market commentary summarizing BloombergNEF estimates suggests the copper industry alone may require investment on the order of ~$1.2 trillion over the next ~25 years to keep up.
Whether the "right number" is $1.2T for copper or higher depending on scenario, the key point is the same: the scale of the spend is massive, and it supports a higher long-term price regime if supply doesn't respond fast enough.
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Practical trade plan: how to handle copper now
Below is a simple framework we'd use to manage the position from here.
Step 1: Scale out into strength (risk management first)
If you're sitting on meaningful gains in FCX and/or COPX, consider taking partial profits rather than trying to nail the exact top. This accomplishes two things:
A common approach is trimming one-third to one-half of the position after an extended move, while keeping a "core" stake for the longer-term thesis.
Step 2: Define your re-entry and add zones (don't chase)
Instead of buying after a big run, let price come to you.
Two practical methods:
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Moving-average approach: look for pullbacks toward key trend levels (commonly the 20-day or 50-day moving average) and scale in if the trend remains intact.
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Support/structure approach: add in layers on pullbacks toward prior consolidation zones (where buyers previously stepped in).
You are not trying to buy the exact low. You are trying to buy good entries with defined risk.
Step 3: Use options (if appropriate) to get paid while you wait
If your audience is options-capable, copper-linked equities can be suitable for income overlays during consolidation:
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Covered calls on FCX: If you believe upside is likely but could be slower or choppier, selling calls against part of a position can generate premium while you hold. The main trade-off is that upside becomes capped above the strike.
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Cash-secured puts: If you want to add exposure but only at lower prices, selling puts can set a "buy zone" where you're comfortable owning shares.
These tools can help monetize volatility during digestion phases — but they require disciplined sizing and risk controls.
Step 4: Pick the right instrument for your objective
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FCX: a liquid, large-cap way to express copper plus company-specific catalysts (operations, costs, Indonesia exposure, etc.).
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COPX: diversified miner exposure (less single-name risk, more "sector beta").
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Direct copper exposure (for advanced traders): futures or copper-linked ETPs (exchange-traded products) can track the metal more directly, but they come with different risks.
Step 5: Keep the long-term thesis, but respect the short-term tape
The copper story is real. The demand drivers are durable. The supply constraints are structural.
But the market still moves in cycles. The best results usually come from combining:
Are there any other commodity stocks or ETFs you're buying right now? What other sectors of the market are you currently interested in? Hit "reply" to this email and let us know your thoughts!
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