Stocks Closed Out 2025 With Another Year Of Double-Digit Gains, 2026 Market Starts Today

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Stocks Closed Out 2025 With Another Year Of Double-Digit Gains, 2026 Market Starts Today

	Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
	Stocks Closed Out 2025 With Another Year Of Double-Digit Gains, 2026 Market Starts Today Stocks closed lower on Wednesday, the last day of 2025. Last minute position squaring and tax-loss harvesting were likely features of the day. We didn't get the 20% gain in the S&P I was hoping for this year. But it still put in a stellar showing with a gain of 16.4%. (The total return (which includes dividends), was up 17.9%.) Another impressive year. Especially after a 24.2% gain in 2023, and a 23.3% gain in 2024. That's 3 years of double-digit gains, which equates to an average annual gain of 21.3% per year. The other indexes had stellar years as well. The Dow was up 13.0%; the Nasdaq was up 20.4%; and the small-cap Russell 2000 was up 11.3%. 2026 is now here. And with it, another year of high expectations. With inflation easing, interest rates expected to fall further, GDP forecasts being upgraded, and the outlook for earnings estimates pointing to growth, I'm expecting double-digit gains again for the 4th year in row. Let's also not forget about the ongoing AI boom. My thesis for 2025 was that it would mirror the tech-boom of 1995-1997. Coming into the year, after two years in row of 20%+ gains, many were expecting stocks to put in a subpar year. But I was expecting something different – another year of strong gains. Back then, we saw five years in a row of double-digit gains for a 220% increase, led by the internet and dot-com companies. This time, it's another tech-boom, driven by AI. And it has the potential to be just as transformative, and profitable, if not more so, as the tech-boom back then. The unprecedented spending and innovation is expected to last for years to come. And that's why I'm expecting another 2 years (at least) of double-digit gains. You can be sure the market won't be without volatility. One look at 2025 shows even in strong bull markets, there will be periods of pullbacks and corrections. (Liberation Day anyone?) But pullbacks and corrections are common as they happen in every bull market. Moreover, pullbacks (defined as a decline between -5% and -9.99%) happen on average of 3-4 times a year, while corrections (defined as a decline between -10% and -19.99%) happen on average of about once a year. But if you know these are commonplace moves, you can instead look at them as opportunities to buy rather than places to sell. And with the aforementioned bullish backdrop, the case for buying any dip (if we're lucky enough to get one – yes, I said lucky) is even more compelling. With the new year upon us, if you didn't trade last year's rally the way you wished you could have, you have a whole new year to make it happen this year. So make sure you take full advantage of it. Happy New Year! Best, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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