Three Steps to Prepare for a Potential Market Correction
The S&P 500 Index is down more than 2% from its January all-time high of about 6,979... On the surface, that looks like "noise" – a routine dip in a still-intact bull market.
Three Steps to Prepare for a Potential Market Correction
By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics
The S&P 500 Index is down about 3% from its January all-time high of about 6,979...
On the surface, that looks like "noise" – a routine dip in a still-intact bull market.
But the headline number is hiding a tale of two markets that could not be more divergent...
On one side, the equal-weighted Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Fund (RSP) is up around 3% year to date. This gain has largely come from the financial, energy, industrial, and health care industries.
Conversely, the "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap stocks are deep in the red from their 52-week highs. On average, they're down about 17% from those peaks.
Keep in mind that the Magnificent Seven collectively represent about one-third of the total weight of the S&P 500.
So if these stocks struggle... there's a good chance the S&P 500 does, too.
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A Bumpy 2026 Is Likely
Folks, 2026 is a midterm-election year. It's "Year 2" of the four-year presidential cycle.
So we can look at history to get an idea of the stock market's annual performance during these years...
Unfortunately, recent history shows that the second year of the election cycle tends to be rough for investors.
In short, the stock market posted an average decline of roughly 2% during the past six "Year 2s" of the cycle. In other words, if you owned the S&P 500 in 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022... you lost an average of about 2% overall those years.
Looking back farther, over 17 election cycles going back to the 1950s, the probability of a correction of 10% or greater in a midterm year is 70%. That's 12 out of those 17 cycles.
Even worse, the average intra-year drawdown in midterm election years since the 1950s is 18%.
Of course, evolving geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East adds to this correction risk...
Consider the effect of the conflict with Iran on oil prices. Before the war erupted, West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") crude oil prices stood at about $67 per barrel. In overnight trading last Sunday, WTI hit more than $100. As of earlier this morning, prices are around $86. That's huge volatility.
And the spike puts the Federal Reserve in a bind...
Elevated oil prices threaten to reignite headline inflation – just as a disinflationary trend was taking hold. A jump in inflation would make the Fed less likely to cut interest rates.
At the same time, the labor market is showing clear signs of stress. Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") report for February showed a loss of 92,000 jobs.
A weakening jobs market normally calls for interest-rate cuts. But the effect of surging oil prices on the core inflation rate could tie the Fed's hands.
Put simply, historical patterns and the current volatile environment point to big potential for a correction in 2026.
Unfortunately, there's not much we can do to prevent a market correction from happening.
But we can set up our own portfolios to minimize any losses that come our way...
The Power Gauge Helps Protect Your Portfolio From Chaos
There are a few steps you can take to prepare for potential downside ahead...
First, you can sell down to your individual "sleeping level."
Put simply, this means adjusting your portfolio so that even if the worst does happen, you can still sleep soundly at night.
You could consider raising cash in your portfolio and tightening your stop losses to protect capital.
Never invest more than you're willing to lose, folks.
Of course, the Power Gauge will help you figure out which stocks to trim back on and which to keep...
It's a good idea to maintain stocks with "bullish" or better grades in industries with strong ratings in the Power Gauge. These stocks represent the "best of the best."
In this environment, be careful when adding new positions to your portfolio. Be wary of bottom-fishing – particularly in sectors and subsectors with "bearish" ratings in the Power Gauge.
Also, consider holding off on large commitments until the uncertainties clear up. In uncertain times, don't go looking for bargains... Let the bargains come to you.
But regardless of whether we see a market correction, there's an important point to keep in mind...
Keep a level head. Corrections will happen – even in strong markets.
And historically, non-recessionary corrections of 10% to 20% have recovered in an average of just four months. A correction isn't a catastrophe unless you panic-sell at the bottom... or it turns into a bear market.
As always, let the Power Gauge be your guiding light through both corrections and bull markets.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.04%
6
19
5
S&P 500
-0.16%
98
277
124
Nasdaq
UNCH
22
47
31
Small Caps
-0.1%
413
1074
395
Bonds
-1.06%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks remain somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Information Technology
+1.64%
Consumer Discretionary
+0.07%
Communication
-0.49%
Utilities
-1.08%
Energy
-1.63%
Real Estate
-1.78%
Financial
-2.25%
Health Care
-2.29%
Consumer Staples
-2.3%
Industrials
-3.09%
Materials
-3.97%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Capital Markets Services
5
46
12
Over the past 6 months, the Capital Markets subsector (KCE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -13.53%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #15 of 21 subsectors.
Indicative Stocks
ARES
Ares Management Corp
CG
The Carlyle Group In
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
VRTX
+8.31%
CIEN
+5.91%
GLW
+5.56%
SNDK
+5.12%
MU
+3.54%
Losers
CNC
-15.97%
FICO
-10.83%
APP
-7.7%
PSKY
-7.69%
WST
-5.74%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
ORCL Oracle Corporation
Q3
$1.79
Beat by $0.10
UNFI United Natural Foods, Inc.
Q0
$0.62
Beat by $0.11
AVAV AeroVironment, Inc.
Q3
$0.64
Missed by $-0.05
* * * *
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