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Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're monitoring today: Friday the 13th Polymarket's "base case" is now for another government shutdown, lasting 3-5 days, beginning after the lapse of funding this Friday. |
Tariff Refund? Odds for the Supreme Court to order the Trump Administration to refund tariff charges have spiked 26% in the last day. Stimmy checks incoming? |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? View market → | 6%-39% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? View market → | 35%-21% |
| Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28? View market → | 76%+29% |
| Bangladesh Parliamentary Election Winner | 12h |
| # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? | 2d |
| Grok 4.20 released on...? | 2d |
| Love Wins: 2026 Edition | 11h ago |
| How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet? | 14h ago |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | 18h ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| US strikes Iran by...? | $13.69M |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | $4.60M |
| Fed decision in March? | $4.27M |
| Prime Minister of Japan after snap election? | $3.45M |
| 2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals | 10d |
| 2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner | 10d |
Whale Moves | "No" Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | $1.17M |
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| "No" US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | $350.0K |
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| "Yes" Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | $105.3K |
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