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Article Highlights
- Meta's latest earnings report swayed many investors, as shares rose by a double-digit percentage the next day.
- The company's Q1 2026 guidance implies growth that the company has not seen in years, especially when adjusting for pandemic-driven abnormalities.
- Updated price targets imply +20% upside ahead, with one particularly bullish forecast projecting +50% gains.
All things considered, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just delivered a very strong Q4 2025 earnings report. It solidly surpassed estimates on sales and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in its Jan. 28 release. Meta also showed impressive underlying improvements in its business.
The Magnificent Seven company's outlook was particularly intriguing. Despite forecasting its spending to rise rapidly in 2026, the firm also projected that sales would increase by 30% in Q1 2026. This would be the company's fastest growth rate since Q3 2021. Wall Street analysts are taking notice of Meta's standout showing, with many lifting their price targets. Meta's growth outlook is striking, and analysts are raising expectations for the stock.
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Growth at Scale: Putting Meta's 30% Guidance in Context
As noted, Meta has not generated 30% growth since Q3 2021—more than four years ago. This alone provides important context around why the company's guidance for next quarter is so strong. However, a deeper dive makes Meta's outlook even more impressive.
The results of many companies in 2021 benefited from a key variable outside of their control, the COVID-19 pandemic. As the economy shut down, 2020 was a weak year for businesses around the world, including Meta. Its sales rose almost 22% that year. At that time, this was the company's slowest growth rate since at least 2015.
As pent-up demand began to unleash in 2021, many companies experienced a spike in sales, with growth metrics offering easy comparisons to 2020. In short, 2021 sales growth was unusually high, largely because of unusually low growth in 2020. Given this abnormality, it is reasonable to consider Meta's growth guidance for a period that precedes the pandemic.
Excluding 2020 and 2021, Meta has not achieved a 30% growth rate since Q4 2018, now roughly seven years ago. This is particularly noteworthy considering the overall growth in Meta's business from then to now. As total revenues rise, achieving high growth rates tends to become more difficult, as each incremental dollar creates a smaller impact on the larger revenue base.
Achieving 30% growth next quarter would put the firm's sales near $55 billion. When Meta generated 30% growth in Q4 2018, its total revenue was just $16.9 billion. This difference highlights just how powerful Meta's business opportunities are today. Despite projecting that revenues will be over three times larger next quarter than in Q4 2018, the firm believes it can generate similar growth.
Meta Price Targets Rise, Most Bullish Forecast Pushed Higher
Currently, the MarketBeat consensus price target on Meta shares sits near $849. This figure implies solid upside of around 20%. However, examining price targets updated after Jan. 28 improves the picture. Overall, MarketBeat tracked more than 25 analysts who updated their Meta price targets after the earnings release, with all but one raising. Among all analysts who issued or updated their price targets after Jan. 28, the average is $870, implying moderately more upside in shares of around 23%.
Although far from a striking difference, it is important to note that analysts have generally remained bullish on Meta while many investors ran scared. The average of the price targets updated one week after the company's Q3 2025 earnings was $857. This came despite the stock dropping well more than 10% during that period.
The lowest price target on Meta among post-Jan. 28 updates comes from Scotiabank at $700, implying 1% downside versus the stock's Feb. 2 closing price near $706. The most bullish updated target comes from Rosenblatt Securities. After the company's Q3 report, Rosenblatt placed a $1,117 target on Meta, the highest MarketBeat had tracked at that time. Rosenblatt has reset the company's highest target, placing a forecast of $1,144 on the stock. This figure implies almost 62% upside.
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Historically Conservative Forecasts Provide Potential for Upward Revisions
Overall, Meta's Q4 report helped get many investors back on its side, with shares rising 10.4% the next day. Additionally, most on Wall Street remain steadfast in their conviction around the stock. Notably, the company has beaten estimates on sales in each of its last 14 earnings releases.
Its track record provides confidence that this trend can continue, supporting its ability to reach price targets above the stock's current level. Still, markets will continue to place a keen eye on Meta's spending, and will expect it to live up to its lofty growth projections.
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